The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .

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These individual contributions are woven into the larger story to provide comparison with the author’s predictions. This tree sporadically, suddenly, and spectacularly flowers15 from one of its outer branches.

Although we hear a lot about fake news of social media today, there is enough good forces that write about the important problems of the future. Despite all, do the best work you can to protect the Earth and its poor for the sake of your own integrity. For me the most important lessons is that is that the overshoot is already here, markets and politics will remain short term, more of us will live in congested cities and there will probably be 2 billion people This is probably one of the most sobering books I have read about the future of the Planet.

The possibility of permafrost thawing and rot I had been looking forward to reading this title for a long time but when I finally got around to it I had rather mixed feelings.

She was candid about a view that leaders widely hold but seldom acknowledge: The question now is whether consumption growth can continue while we reduce the human ecological footprint.

Wow – what a long retrospective!

In my Independent Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, we imagined the utility of an “Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse,” a group that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the path industrial civilization could take. In this article, he presents the conclusions he reached in his new book.


No mention of the specter of nuclear winter is made. The possibility of permafrost thawing and rotting, releasing methane in the process, is mentioned in passing here and there. China and India alone will account for more than one-third of the total increase. New costs will be incurred.

But the answer, I believe, is both yes and no. Most people don’t get how inertia makes the trajectories of social systems discernible over long stretches of time. Published right as the United States was getting under way with Obama’s second term, he might not have seen that we are not actually at the beginning of real progress, but at the start of a vulgar and reactionary denial to climate change, or any environmental issue, as a widely-understood threat to human flourishing.

Also, people will do what makes economic sense in the short term. In what has probably turned out to be unfortunate for the author’s attempt to regain psychological balance, the possibility that the future might be worse than the middle of the road seemingly doesn’t occur to him.

I must confess that I’ve read this book in a rather superficial way.

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Then, switch to long term thinking and convince others to do likewise. Jun 30, Hamilton Carvalho rated it it was amazing. Looking ahead toan even larger and more dramatic process of systemic exclusion will occur in African cities and towns. The result is modestly interesting – Randers predicts no reduction of carbon emissions until peak oil, increasing use of renewable energy and biofuels, stable and then declining global population, China’s emerging hegemony, rising GDP in the developing world, increasing starvation rznders malnutrition, etc.

The situation in May 06, Soren Molander rated it it fanders amazing Shelves: Either way, some of our fate might as well be sealed: Randers seemed to offer the next best thing to a serious, well funded and jrogen effort to examine this most important of all possible questions.


A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Wikipedia

His predictions may well come to be true in the short term more of the same, just worsebut he makes no effort to predict the future when things begin to unravel – politically, economic Jorgen Randers extends the trends to make predictions about the future. Hence, their job is to make sure their people will lose last. Thirdly, it offers not only future scenarios, it makes concrete proposals on how the individual should respond to emerging developments.

That was the year that several centuries of struggle between the people and the ruling feudal class culminated in revolution. Numerical results are given in graphs which are simple in layout but quite powerful when you think that in a black line on white paper – there is our future – how crowded, how wealthy, how hot We will become an increasingly urbanised, digitally enabled and detached-from-nature species, living in apartment blocks and relying on a virtual world to entertain us and remind us of what the natural world looks like, or used to look like.

And third will be ever-higher processing costs associated with ore refining. Historically, economic growth has increased both consumption levels and the loads on the environment.

Goodreads helps you keep track of ranxers you want to read. Sep 28, Ptrav rated it did not like it Shelves: He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead.

This page was last edited on 25 Februaryat rznders These original models, as published in the “famous in some circles” book “Limits to Growth”.